Peak Oil concerns

I read alot about environmental things.... peak oil... global warming/dimming... and so much more... This morning I came across this article about When Oil Dries Up in the Sydney Morning Herald from Australia. I read alot of things about peak oil, and I think much of it is quite valid, and that not enough of us are taking the steps necessary to plan for this in the future. I do like Richard Heinberg's theories and ideas and agree with most of it.

"It's not just going to be a matter of replacing gasoline with something else and continuing on our merry way. We're actually going to have to change our transportation systems and reduce the amount of transportation that we do."

Heinberg is also skeptical of the prospect of biofuels saving the day. "It's clear ethanol and other biofuels are going to entail a trade-off between food and fuel. If we try to replace gasoline and diesel fuels with biofuels we'll simply fail because we don't have enough land and people will starve in the process."

Nuclear power is similarly dismissed as being fraught with too many technical, economic and environmental hurdles.

If we are to gently surf the downward slope of Hubbert's bell curve rather than precipitously tumble off the edge, Heinberg says, it will take a social transformation of no lesser magnitude than the industrial revolution. "I don't think we are going back to exactly how people lived 200 years ago but we are going to need lots more human labour in agriculture and that means the middle class is going to start shrinking."

Overall population levels will also have to shrink worldwide. On the back of oil's one-time energy dividend the world's population has increased sixfold, creating an unsustainable, self-perpetuating cycle needing more and more oil.

Manufacturing will again become a local business in the post-oil era as the interdependencies of global trade are unwound. International trade will continue but it will be restricted to luxuries and exotic items. People will work and shop close to home and even grow some food in their own backyards - just as many of our parents did.

"I think that's going to be good for people and good for communities," Heinberg says. "If the transition is accomplished in a co-ordinated way it's going to mean more jobs and more satisfying jobs for people.

"If you look at the end of the process it's not hard to paint a fairly attractive picture. The problem is how we get there - very few communities are planning for this transition. [But] if we just let market forces rule, the result is going to be economic, political and social chaos in the intervening period."

The sociologist mind that I have really likes this part about it being good for communities. I feel the world needs to get back to this more.